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pdextrading.com search primary menu skip to content search for: news fed’s monetary policy report: the economy is improving, and the gradual rate hike is still the main issue july 15, 2018 pdextrading on friday (july 13), the fed disclosed a semi-annual monetary policy report submitted to congress. the report is generally optimistic. the report said that the us economic growth was strong in the first half of this year, and the fed is expected to continue to raise interest rates gradually . due to the expected wording of the report, the us dollar and gold did not respond significantly. this is from bao weier second document since early february at the helm of the fed, the fed submitted to congress. powell is scheduled to answer questions about congress next tuesday and next wednesday. the 63-page report is in line with current expectations as detailed by the fed at the policy meeting, that is, strong economic growth and low unemployment require a rate hike, but the lack of severe inflationary pressures means that it can maintain a gradual rate hike.download the app read this article for more in-depth coverage the 63-page report is in line with current expectations as detailed by the fed at the policy meeting, that is, strong economic growth and low unemployment require a rate hike, but the lack of severe inflationary pressures means that it can maintain a gradual rate hike. the fed said in the report that in the first half of this year, the overall economic activity of the united states seems to have grown steadily, and the economy continues to be supported by favorable consumer and business confidence. in the first half of the year, household wealth increased, foreign economic growth was stable, and domestic financial conditions were loose. therefore, the fed expects that “interest rates will gradually increase” is appropriate. the fed is currently striving to continue to promote economic expansion. this round of expansion is the second longest economic expansion in history. the fed said that the trump administration’s tax cuts may lead to a rebound in consumer spending from a downturn and may provide modest boosts for this year’s economic growth. powell mentioned in an interview on thursday that the us economy is relatively optimistic. he said that he believes that the us economy is still in a “very good position” and that recent government tax and spending plans may boost gdp growth within three years. since the tightening cycle began in december 2015, the fed has raised interest rates seven times, and recently raised the benchmark interest rate by another 25 percentage points in mid-june. the fed is expected to raise interest rates twice before the end of the year. in addition, fed policy makers once again stated in the report that wage growth has been weaker than expected given the current unemployment rate of 4%. if labor demand is still strong, more workers in the golden age will enter the labor market. wage growth may be under pressure due to weak productivity, and the labor market is still likely to be further slack. focus on the impact of trade protectionism the report mentions the trump administration’s trade protectionist policy. although there was no discussion, the report stated that “although there is not a lot of pressure, uncertainty is a concern of financial markets.” many policymakers expressed concern about trade disputes with major allies, and powell said on thursday that high tariffs on products and services could damage the economy. earlier announced us july university of michigan consumer confidence index initial value of 97.1, less than expected 98, due to consumer concerns about trade protectionism. after the data was released, the us dollar index fell in a short-term. curtin, head of consumer research at the university of michigan, said that consumer confidence declined in early july, but it was almost the same as the average of the previous 12 months. the current decline in consumer confidence is due to growing concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on the domestic economy. they are worried about the future economic growth rate and rising inflation. after the fed disclosed the report, there was no significant fluctuation in the market. mainly because the tone and content of the report are basically consistent with the contents of the previous fed policy meeting. after the disclosure of the report, the us dollar and gold did not respond significantly. as of press time, the us dollar index was 94.7902, a decrease of 0.02%; spot gold is now reported at 1242.46 us dollars / ounce, an increase of 0.4%. uncategorized ecb believe that an interest rate hike at the end of 2019 is too late july 10, 2018 pdextrading some european central bank management committees believe that the interest rate hike at the end of 2019 is too late 20 bloomberg news quoted informed sources said some ecb officials believe that by the end of 2019 and then raise interest rates too late, is more likely to raise interest rates, although any decision depends on the prevailing economic prospects for next year in september or october. the euro regained its earlier decline against the dollar, rising 27 points in the short term and expecting the probability of a rate hike in september to rise to 80%. according to informed sources quoted by bloomberg, some european central bank officials believe that if the market expects to raise interest rates at the end of 2019, i am afraid it will be too late. it is more likely to raise interest rates in september or october next year, but any decision will depend on the economic outlook at the time. the news directly pushed the euro against the dollar to rise 27 points in the short-term, hitting a high of 1.1666, completely regaining the earlier decline. although the market still fully calculates the possibility that the benchmark deposit rate will increase by 10 basis points in december 2019, the probability of raising interest rates in september will increase from less than 70% to 80%. wall street has mentioned that the european central bank’s policy meeting in mid-june maintained the three major interest rates unchanged, announcing that it will completely close the net bond purchase project in december this year, but will keep interest rates unchanged “at least until the end of summer in 2019”. although the qe volume-wide project had a definitive conclusion at the end of the project, the wording of the interest rate triggered the market doves to interpret the euro, and the euro fell more than 1% in the short-term, and the eurozone government bond yield led by german debt fell sharply. the ecb management committee member and taiwan central bank governor vitas vasiliauskas later said that the forward-looking guidance on interest rates should be understood as: no interest rate increase until the end of september next year, and the suspense of raising interest rates will be left to 2019 10 policy meetings for the month and december. bloomberg commented that the timing of the ecb’s interest rate hike has become more important as the qe net bond-financing timeline has no suspense. on tuesday, ecb chief economist peter praet also said that interest rates will play a central role in the future major policy instruments, which means that interest rate decisions will set the tone for the european central bank’s monetary easing after the financial crisis. in addition, the european central bank president mario draghi, who is known as the “dove”, will step down on october 31, 2019. some analysts pointed out that the policy meeting in september or october next year will also be the last of draghi. window to adjust post-crisis policies. france paribas economist said this week the european central bank also adjusted its june policy statement on interest rates commitment (rate pledge) french, german and it is worth noting that the yield curve of the national debt of major countries in the eurozone has also become flatter. according
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